Bad neighbours

The acrimony between Russia and Georgia is threatening to boil over again, and this time the stakes have risen

o http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/07/badneighbours

Russia is surely watching the anti-China hysterics ahead of the Beijing Olympics with a wary eye. After all, in a few years the eyes of the world will be on Sochi, the site of the 2014 Winter Games. Prepare for more protests.

The Black Sea resort is within earshot of the Russian-Georgian border, where the two neighbours have been waging an incessant battle over the status of two breakaway provinces that threatens to destabilise the region.

The latest feud arose after an unmanned Georgian reconnaissance drone was shot down on April 20 above Abkhazia, one of the separatist enclaves. The work of rogue Abkhazian rebels, Moscow claims. A violation of Georgian sovereignty, Tbilisi counters. Georgia has taken its case to the UN security council, and the OSCE has dispatched an envoy to diffuse tensions.

So who's right? More important, how can the issue get resolved in short order so that Russia - a proud country whose human rights record raises eyebrows abroad - can avoid the same fate as China?

US officials have pressed both sides to reach a "lasting political solution", but no one believes that Washington is a neutral observer. Much to Russia's chagrin, President Bush has pushed for fast-tracking Georgia's membership into Nato - the Georgians have even named a stretch of highway after the American president. Russia, meanwhile, still believes that America's intelligence agencies had a hidden hand in the 2003 popular uprising that swept to power the pro-western democrat Mikhail Saakashvili and ushered in an era of Georgian-Russian mutual acrimony.

Moreover, the Russians are still smarting from Kosovo's independence, even though the precedent-setting event can now be held up as a model for enclaves like Abkhazia and South Ossetia to follow. The conventional wisdom in Russia holds that these regions, whose people are not ethnically Georgian, are being denied their right to self-autonomy. With Kosovo being granted statehood (albeit against Russia's will), momentum would seem to be tilting toward the side of the separatists. To that end, one of Vladimir Putin's swan songs as president was to ramp up Russia's support - political, military, economic - for the two enclaves. Rumours have even swirled that Russians were forcing local Abkhazians to swap their IDs for Russian passports.

Georgians charge that Russia's latest moves amount to de facto recognition of the two provinces, a blatant violation of international law, they reckon. Further, they say that Russia, still seething over efforts by Georgia to join Nato, is deliberately provoking a fight. By shooting down its drone over Georgia, according to Tbilisi, the Russians have violated the ceasefire agreement inked in 1994.

Whereas previous flare-ups between the two neighbours have led to wine embargos, gas shutoffs and diplomats called home, local officials caution that this time the stakes have risen. Though neither side says war is imminent, they both have cried wolf so many times that impassioned segments within their population are now bruising for a fight.

Of course, Russia cannot afford a military conflict on its southern flank, especially at a time when the violence in Chechnya has finally tampered down. Nor is Moscow keen on a border skirmish in Sochi's backyard, which could prompt calls for an Olympic boycott by states sympathetic to Georgia (memories of the 1980 Moscow Games boycott are still fresh among older Russians).

The Georgians, too, cannot afford a military conflagration. Besides the fact Georgia's military would be no match for Russia's, any conflict would probably scotch its chances at Nato membership, much less future entrance into the EU. The last thing most Europeans want is to send Nato forces to mediate a frozen conflict in the Caucasus. Georgia's image was not helped any after police roughed up protestors and shuttered an opposition-run media company last fall.

That said, it is unlikely that the UN security council, where Russia is a veto-wielding member, will be able to broker a solution. But both sides should be pressured to honour their 1994 ceasefire. The UN could sponsor greater dialogue between the Abkhaz and Georgian leadership, while pressuring the Georgians to permit the local Abkhaz population the right to travel and trade freely. Brussels, meanwhile, should make it clear that Tbilisi renounce the use of force as a prerequisite to joining EU or Nato. And the Russians must forswear actions deemed to be violations of Georgia's territorial integrity (ie gunning down its spy drones), lift all sanctions and allow local Georgians in Abkhazia greater freedom of movement.

To be sure, the granting of independence to Kosovo complicates Russia's frozen conflicts, as it may give other ethnic minorities a false sense of hope. "Why them and not us?" a good many might ask. But the Balkans is not the Caucasus - a geo-strategic energy corridor vital to US interests that Washington is keen on keeping Russia's paws off. That may explain why every American candidate for president has condemned Russia's latest actions in recent weeks and sung the praises of Georgia.

Neither Moscow nor Tbilisi can afford a military confrontation at this time. It would behove no one were the 2014 Olympics in Sochi to descend into a geopolitical debacle, or worse, become known forever as the "Frozen Conflict Olympics".